The price for him just went down… if ever there was a time to go and get him…

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So, as you know I have been pretty unhappy with the way this offseason has gone so far, outside of the Gaborik and Gomez situations. So I really wanted to know, are we going to be better than we were last season.

Here is how I did my calculations. I wanted to get a more fair and balanced view on what a player can and should give us, so I wanted to take into consideration both what they did last season, and what their career averages are. For example if a player averages 30 goals per season per 82 games, but last season averaged 10 goals per 82 games played, then I would estimate that next season they would have a bounce back season likely in between those 2 totals because players tend to get worse with time, and you have to take into account players do have medians that they perform at. So for said player I would guesstimate 20 goals this upcoming season since it is the average between what they have done in the past, and what they did last season. Furthermore it is too difficult to figure out who will play how many games, so you literally have to assume the same 18 players will play all 82 games, or that the fill ins for those players will perform at the same level, the calculations otherwise would be extremely complicated and way too time consuming for someone doing a blog just for fun.

One final thing we have to deal with is that rookies are extremely difficult to project in the NHL. The only way I could think to do it is as follows. A player jumping from the AHL to the NHL will perform at roughly 50% of the level based on the same calculations performed above, and a player jumping from juniors to the NHL will perform at 25% of the level based on the above calculations. I can’t think of any other way to do it, and if anyone can, please do let me know! The calculation includes Dubinsky and Zherdev, because until they are officially traded, they are part of this team.

Adding them all up you are talking about approximately 276 goals worth of offense here. Now, clearly this is assuming nobody big gets hurt, nobody has a substantially up or down year, etc. I shudder to even think about what the upper and lower bounds is based on a floating error, maybe in the neighborhood of 20% (55 goals).

To put things in perspective, last seasons team scored 76 fewer goals than these projections.

I want to reiterate something, this is not an exact science. The odds of Enver Lisin scoring 21 goals while playing 4th line minutes are probably below zero. Likewise the odds of having a player get injured…say Gaborik, and being replaced by a player who would put up goals at the same pace (Who would be the next in line to be inserted…Aaron Voros? Yuck!) are also highly unlikley. Likewise the odds of Nikolai Zherdev playing this season are also quite low. My guess is this team scores in the neighborhood of 220-245 goals. which would roughly put us in the 10-20 range in terms of offense. Which is clearly an improvement over last season.

So, to answer my question…yes, we are a better team. Are we a cup contender? No, definitely not. I think if you can add Dany Heatley, Dane Byers and Evgeny Grachev while subtracting Nikolai Zherdev, Enver Lisin and Christopher Higgins, I think that would make us a much much better team, and possibly a cup contender.

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Go get him Slats…

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Just a heads up, the NYRangersCast crew has an interview with Rangers prospect Matt Gilroy. Check it out!

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The Rangers started off with a bang, trading away Scott Gomez in a heist of a trade. Then they signed Marian Gaborik, someone I have been pining for for years now. However the offseason outside of those 2 moves has been borderline horrific. I expected the Callahan re-signing, as well as the sure to come Dubinsky re-signing, so I’m not even going to count those…those are mulligans right there. However outside of that, this offseason has been just putrid. Trading away a defensive stalwart with a tremendous upside in Lauri Korpikoski for a guy who doesn’t even understand the word “defense” without the monstrous offensive totals to counteract the defensive deficiencies borders on the absurd. Why on earth would you make this trade if you are the Rangers? At the very best it is a lateral move, you are trading Lauri who is a sure fire 4th liner, but probably will be a solid 3rd liner for a guy who is either going to be a 2nd liner, but will more likely be waived or traded away in Lisin. I mean, apparently this kid has the typical Russian nonexistant defensive game or all out hustle, so why would you trade for him…especially since we are (apparently) walking away from a significantly more talented offensive and defensive player in Nikolai Zherdev over seemingly half a million bucks…does that make sense to anyone else?

We also go out and sign another 3rd line, 20/20 guy in Kotalik to a 3 mil per year contract, and another 20/20 guy in Higgins to another 2+ million dollar deal. I really don’t understand this. Right now I’m convinced this teams offensive output, as currentily constructed will come out to about 210 goals for the season…again.

I sure hope Sather has another blockbuster deal up his sleeve (Dany Heatley is looking mighty interesting right about now) because this is a 6th-9th seed team as constructed right now AT BEST.

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Not a fan of this signing..though it largely depends on the term. Guy is a shooter, he can rifle the puck (when he actually hits the net), but he brings little else to the table. He’s basically a 20/20 guy who has always played in a wide open system. The only way this makes any kind of sense is if it is a precursor to a trade of some sort.

Let’s just assume that Kotalik is here to replace Zherdev, and Higgins was here to replace Naslund… we just went from (based on last years production)..24G, 22A + 23G, 35A (47G, 57A) to 12G 11A + 20G, 23A (32G, 34A)

Even if you go by Higgins and Kotaliks career averages and assume they play all 82 games you go to 24G, 19A + 22G, 24A (46G, 43A) which is STILL a step down from what we got last year.

This is quite baffling. If we are in fact walking away from Zherdev, even with the addition of Gaborik we really are only a tiny bit better today offensively than we were yesterday. To me, the only way this makes sense, is if we are walking away from Korpedo (while bringing back Zherdev), and replacing Korpi with Kotalik.

It gets worse, apparently it is a 3 year deal for 3 million a season. I really do not understand this signing whatsoever. 3 years, 3 million per for a guy who, on his best year will basically just equal what Z gave us last year, whereas for 4 mil you could lock up Z and have 60 points almost guaranteed with 80-100 point upside if he ever brings it all together…this is just a stupid move on so many levels, unless of course it is a precursor to a trade.

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As you have heard by now, the Rangers are considering walking away from Nikky Zherdev if he is awarded more than his 3.25 qualifying offer. This is complete and utter insanity. Just re-read this for my thoughts on the situation.

October:12 points
November:11 points
December:11 points
January:7 points
February:6 points
March:10 points
April:1 point

Ranger fans have tunnel vision. Let’s ignore the fact that he was very good for the first 6 months of the season, because he had 1 bad month when, for the first time in his career at ANY level he finally had to worry about playoffs, he collapsed. He’s a 23-24 year old kid for heavens sake, he’s still a baby, and yet he led our team in points, and if not for that 1 terrible month probably puts up about 65-70 points this season.

But no, the stupidity of having 1 bad month defining an entire season continues with the Ranger brass. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zhedev walks and explodes for 70-80 points elsewhere. Not one bit.

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Sorry this took so long, at about midnight I decided to watch a movie before I did this writeup….didn’t realize Watchmen was 3 hours long. Anyway, these past few weeks have been the ultimate in bipolar feelings towards the Rangers, and more specifically towards Glen Sather. First at the draft he passes on Schroeder (DAMN IT!) but instead drafts a kid with potentially higher upside (YES!!). Then right before the free agent frenzy is set to begin, he pulls off highway robbery of epic proportions by dealing Scott Gomez for not only a serviceable player (Higgins) but also a bluechip prospect (McDonagh) without taking on any significant salary (YES!!!). He then decides to sign Donald Brashear (DAMN IT!!!) only to also bring in the focus of my serious mancrush, Marian Gaborik (WOO HOO!)

So, you can see how I might be a little overwhelmed in this seesaw emotional game Sather seems to put me through. Since I have already talked about Gomez and the draft, let’s just talk about the 2 deals today.

To start off the Rangers portion of Free Agent Frenzy, Glen Sather pulled off one of the more retarded signings he has ever done on this day. He picked up 37 year old enforcer Donald Brashear. Now, before I get to why I hate this deal so much let’s talk about Brashear. In 989 career NHL games Brashear has racked up 2,561 penalty minutes, approximately 212 penalty minutes per 82 game season. He also has scored 204 points which is approximately 17 points per 82 games played. On the flip side, Colton Orr has amassed 549 penalty minutes in 245 career NHL games, approximately 184 penalty minutes per 82 game season while tacking on 11 career points in those games which averages out to a sickeningly bad (less than) 4 points a season. There are no comparing the 2. Brashear is the better fighter, Brashear is significantly more intimidating, Brashear is a faster skater, Brashear is tremendously more talented offensively. In short, Donald Brashear is a hell of an upgrade over Colton Orr.

So, why is this such a crap move? 2 reasons, first and foremost you have 100% committed 1.4 million dollars per season for the next 2 years. There is no Marcus Naslund type early retirement, there is Brashear, on your cap, unless he is traded. That is what happens when you commit to a player over the age of 35, which the now 37 year old Brashear is well past. The second reason is simple. I simply do not believe that in this day and age it is necessary to have an enforcer on your club. Look at the past 2 years, 2 teams without an enforcer to their name make it to the finals. The Detroit Red Wings have created a dynasty where the closest thing they have had to an enforcer was Brendan Shanahan. Team toughness is important, speed is important, physicality is important. Having a goon isn’t that important. While it is nice to know that Brashear has the talent to occasionally put up a point and not be the epic black hole that Orr was, you also have to think some of the kids would have been better suited getting some playing time on that 4th line.

After nearly pushing me off the ledge with that horrendous signing, Sather reeled me back in by signing one of my favorite players in the NHL today, Marian Gaborik. If you’ve read this blog at all during the past few years, you’ve probably read several pleas from me to acquire Gaboriks rights, injured or not, performing or not, just do whatever it takes to get his ass here, and lock him up. Well, the Rangers finally obliged. The deal is about what you would expect for an elite player, 5 years at 7.5 million per year.

Remember, this is not Scott Gomez. This is not Wade Redden. This is not Chris Drury. Marian Gaborik is an elite player. Everyone, everywhere knows this. What he has done in Minnesota has been nothing short of jaw dropping. He managed to average 36 goals and 36 assists per 82 game season over the course of his career playing in a stifling defensive system the likes of which are tough to comprehend at times. Furthermore he has averaged 49 goals and 42 assists (91 points) per 82 games played since the lockout, again in a stifling defensive system. But, by now you have noticed a trend here with the calculations I am doing. It is always “per 82 games played”. With Gaborik, his only issue, the single question with him, is his health. If he is healthy, playing in that stifling system of Lemaires, you can pencil him in for 49/42/91. A conservative estimate would be that you could probably add 5-10% to that number switching to a standard system, and switching to an all out offensive attack plan like Tortorellas, you probably can pencil him in for a 15% increase in productivity (56/48/104). Again, this is all just guesstimation and hoping here, but it is what I feel are reasonable expectations to place upon him. What probably isn’t reasonable is to expect him to play a full 82 games, and therein lies the problem. Are we getting him for 50 games? 60? 70? 80? Who knows. This is why the message boards are either in absolute adoration of this signing (like I am), or in absolute terror of this signing. Gaborik is the ultimate boom or bust. Not based on talent, but based on health. This is a fact, when he plays, he is an unstoppable offensive force, comparable to the best in the East. However, he doesn’t always play, and that is what we will have to wait, see, and ultimately judge this signing based on. For the record, I would have done this exact move, for this exact dollar amount, and this exact years (it’s what I said I would offer him when doing some predictions prior to the frenzy over on the boards). So this is a move I will either have to eat a nice big plate of crow on, or one I will be gloating about for years. I’m sure if I’m wrong there won’t be a shortage of people lining up to point it out.

Tomorrow starts anew, and I figure we are in for at least 1, if not 2 or 3 more moves. The Rangers, if they are truly interested in being contenders, need 1 more player. If it’s a Marleau, or a Heatley, or a Kessel, I do not know, but I do know that the truly elite teams give their superstar offensive forward someone to lean on when he can’t get it done. That is what we need to do if we really want to make a run for it. While I am not advocating emptying the cupboard for some soon to be UFA, or some over the hill, vet….I wouldn’t be opposed to dealing from a strength (our defense) to shore up our weakness (offense). And if a player like Girardi, or a prospect like Sanguinetti or McDonagh or Anisimov have to go in order to bring in a guy like Lecavalier…then that’s a price I am willing to play.

Let’s see if Sather has another miracle up his sleeve, or if he has another lump of coal up there.

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RANGERS SIGN GABORIK!!!!

The guy I have wanted on this team for years and years and years now…and at a frikkin steal of a pricetag to boot!!! 5 years and 5.75 per!!

EDIT: Looks like it is at 7.5 per now, not 5.75, you know what, I dont care, it’s still well worth it imho.

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As expected, Glen Sather continues his idiocy during free agency by making a completely unnecessary signing here.

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