Well, even though it’s 3am, I felt I have been procrastinating more than enough this offseason. I feel pretty hypocritical requesting the NYRangersCast crew get to work when I myself have been very slow in writing the articles, and mine just requires me to just sit and type whenever I want, without having to get studio time to do recording. Anyway, what I owe you guys is one long piece previewing the season. Because of sheer length I am going to break it down into parts, but it really is going to be one massive piece. Here is how it will break down:
So, let’s get right into it shall we? This is going to be alphabetical for simplicity.
Atlanta Thrashers: Predicted Point Total: 71
It’s ironic I should start with this team, considering it really is the one I am least looking forward to actually writing. Here is my problem, I have many many friends who are super die hard Thrasher fans, many of whom are season ticket holders. I have no idea if they ever check out this site, but if they do, odds are they won’t be happy with this review. I suppose if any of you guys are reading this, now is the time to look away.
So, you have a team that finished dead last in the worst division in hockey, having Marian Hossa playing the bulk of the season in your uniform. Now, you lose Marian Hossa, and acquire 3rd line, borderline 2nd line players to fill his shoes. You have a team that has a GLARING need for a center to play with arguably the 2nd best pure goal scorer in the NHL today, but it does nothing to fill in the need. The Thrashers are going to be bad folks. Yes, they signed Jason Williams, and Ron Hainsey, 2 moves I really love for their franchise, but they did nothing to fill in the massive gap in skill between Kovalchuk and the next closest threat. Most teams have at least 2 legitimate offensive superstar, or at least 3 or 4 very good offensive players. Who do the Thrashers have? They have Kovalchuk….and? Really Kozlov would be the closest thing to a secondary scorer on this team, and he netted a grand total of 17 goals last year. After that the drop off in goal total is frightening to look at. Adding Jason Williams will surely help, but it’s a bit much to ask him to fill in Marian Hossas shoes.
Here is the long and the short of this team. If Kari Lehtonen stands on his head, & Ilya Kovalchuk nets at least 2 goals, they will have a chance at winning. Otherwise, they will lose, and lose a lot. A whole lot. The only saving grace for the Thrashers is that the Islanders will likely be worse, so at least they can say that. They also have Bogosian, and Hainsey which should most defintiely upgrade the 2nd to last defensive team in hockey, but expecting Bogosian and Hainsey to have enough of an impact on this team to turn them around from a cellar dwellar (again, in the worst division in hockey) is just unrealistic. Even with the defensive upgrade, and presumably a healthy Kari Lehtonen who should perform well as he is one of the more talented goalies in the league, there still is a monstrous gaping hole in terms of goal scoring. The only way this team can compete is if they go into an insane defensive system, like the Canucks, and I don’t see a team with Ilya Kovalchuk doing that. Why? Because he is 1 more year away from free agency. You simply can not play a style of hockey that will alienate your franchise player. If he is scoring goals, maybe it will take his mind off of the teams record, but if he isn’t scoring goals, and the team still sucks, then you are up the creek with no hope of getting out.
Carolina Hurricanes : Predicted Point Total: 90
The defending Stanley Cup Champions, once removed will once again find themselves in the thick of the playoff race, only to fall short in the last week or so. Kind of a bold prediction right? Not really. The Canes were a 92 point team last year in the crappiest division in hockey, with a ridiculously weak Tampa Bay squad to beat up on, and a Washington team that didn’t really find their identity till the final few months of the season. They won’t have that luxury, and while I truly believe they have improved by adding Joni Pitkanen, and getting rid of my least favorite player in NHL History (Erik Cole), I do not think it is near enough to combat the fact that those 2 teams have gotten substantially better than what these guys have faced for the bulk of last season, and they will have 2 fewer games each to beat up on the Thrashers and Panthers (fewer rivaly games on this years schedule, thankfully). This is a case where a team actually gets better, but will finish with a worse record than the previous season.
With the signing of Pitkanen, the Canes managed to address a serious weakness they have, a complete and utter lack of any offense on their blueline. Remember, this is the same club that had to dress Andrew Hutchinson as a defenseman strictly so they had a competant power play quarterback, but never let him play during even strength or the penalty kill. That is called desperation, and while Joni Pitkanen might be one of the most potent unharnessed weapons in all of hockey, he can’t do it all himself, and history has shown that he is far more likely to underachieve, than finally realize his great potential.
This team does still have Staal, Cullen, Whitney, Brind’Amour, Walker, etc. They have a ton of firepower, and they have a former Conn Smythe winner between their pipes, for what that is worth. They will be a threat each and every night. This won’t be a team that you can look past on the schedule. But with all of that said, the rest of the East is just better, especially the Atlantic.
Florida Panthers: Predicted Point Total: 80
Sacrifice offense for defense. That is what these guys have decided to do. They traded away one of the most underrated players in the East in Olli Jokinen, and acquired 2 defenseman in Keith Ballard and Nick Boynton. Yes, that is an idiotic trade, and yes, that is why I have these guys dropping from 85 points last year to 80 this year. I think we will see a substantial improvement from a very average defensive team (14th in the NHL) to one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. Unfortunately in order to win in the NHL, you still have to score more goals than the other guy, and with Jokinen gone, that leaves just Nathan Horton, Cory Stillman and David Booth as the only guys you can legitimately expect to score over 20 goals.
Rostislav Olesz is an interesting part of this team though. Last year he netted 14 goals in only 56 games, and while that isn’t super impressive, the kids skill set is undeniable. This isn’t a Nikolai Zherdev by any stretch of the imagination, but Olesz should be capable of netting 25+ goals consistently. If he finally breaks out of his shell, I think the Panthers might surprise and contend for a playoff spot, but I am banking on mediocrity to reign here. Expect a similar 10-15 goal performance from the enigma, even with more ice time.
Tampa Bay Lightning : Predicted Point Total: 94
You ever say something stupid to someone, and then they say the ever snarky "hey, I’ve got some swamp land for sale if you’re interested"? Well, I have a feeling that if you said that to the Lightning ownership they would buy it. And overpay it. Seriously, who did these guys not sign? They replaced one of the best coaches in hockey, with one of the most overrated mouthpieces ever. Are you kidding me? You think trading Tortorella for Melrose is a good move? Who the hell is running that franchise? They made a great, no brainer move in drafting Steven Stamkos, but when you look at a team that has St. Louis, Prospal, and Lecavalier, you figure that you have enough firepower to sink a battleship. But no, these guys then go and add Vrbata, Roberts, Malone, Hall, and Recchi. Sheesh! But here is the story with these guys…where is the defense? Yeah, they acquired the severely overrated Andrej Meszaros for a truck load, and they signed Olie the goalie to backstop them, but do you really feel confident with that group? You’ve got Mike Smith and Olaf Kolzig backstopping a defense that has Matt Carle, Andrej Meszaros, Paul Ranger, Andrew Hutchinson and..uhh…who else? Mike Lundin? Doug Janik? Who the hell are those guys? When Andrew Hutchinson, a guy who couldn’t beat out Jason ECHL Strudwick for a job, is your 4th best defenseman, you are in some serious crap.
If ever there was a team that is going to try to outscore the crap out of you, this is it. They have offense galore, but they have no goaltending, and no defense at all, with a braindead coach running the show. If they had a better defense, or a superstar goalie, I think they could win it all, that is how friggin scary their offense is. As it is, they don’t. They will win a lot of games 6-5, but they will lose a lot of games by the same margin as well. A team like the Rangers is built to stop this kind of a club. We are build from the back out, with balance all across the board, the Lightning are all guns, with no armor. One shot, and they’re done.
Washington Capitals : Predicted Point Total: 96
The Capitals did a great job of not really screwing with a good thing. They did nothing of note in their entire roster outside of their goalie. They saw a team with 4 absolute studs all in their prime in AO, Semin, Backstrom, and Green, and figured, why should we screw with that? And right they are. This was the team I predicted to win their division last year, and now, I think they do it with a legitimate championship caliber team. The signing of Jose Theodore has been scoffed all across the blogosphere, personally, I think it is a coup-de-tat. I think these guys got a guy on the right side of a bounce back career. I honestly think Jose Theodore has a chance to backstop this team to a championship. That is how much I think of the guy. A few years back, I had given up on him, but now, I think he is back, with a vengeance.
Now you have a team with 4 absolutely lethal offensive players, and add a superb goalie. And, you are adding a 5th superb offensive player in Michael Nylander. Don’t forget that they lost him early last year, but he should be back for the start of the season, and in this case it’s like adding an 80 point player via free agency but not having a single person really notice it. This is not the case of the Hurricanes, or the Tampa Bay lightning in terms of being a super top heavy team. These guys are really well balanced, offense up and down the lineup, physicality, responsibile two way players, a defense that is capable, and a superb goalie. If you are a Capitals fan, it’s hard not to be excited about this club. If you are a hockey fan, its hard not to be excited about this club. Things will be exciting this winter in the capital.
|
Final Predicted Standings:
|
||
| 1) | Washington Capitals** | 96 |
| 2) | Tampa Bay Lightning* | 94 |
| 3) | Carolina Hurricanes | 90 |
| 4) | Florida Panthers | 80 |
| 5) | Atlanta Thrashers | 71 |
| ** denotes division champion | ||
| * denotes playoff team | ||
