I was wondering how my preseason predictions stacked up against the end results, so I figured I would give myself a grade. Here is the way I will score myself. I will take the difference between my predicted points, and the actual points, and subtract that from 100. For example, if I predicted team X finishes with 80 points, and they actually finished with 85 (or 75) points, that would be a -5 difference. 100-5=95. I will also give myself a bonus of 10 points for every team whose seeding I accurately predicted. Then I will take the average score and that will be my grade. So here goes.
|
Predictions
|
Actual Results
|
||||||
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Points
|
Points
|
Difference
|
Rank
|
Bonus
|
Final Score
|
|
1
|
Ottawa
|
110
|
94
|
16
|
6
|
0
|
84
|
|
2
|
New York Rangers
|
102
|
97
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
95
|
|
3
|
Washington
|
95
|
94
|
1
|
3
|
+10
|
109
|
|
4
|
Buffalo
|
100
|
90
|
10
|
10
|
0
|
90
|
|
5
|
Pittsburgh
|
100
|
102
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
98
|
|
6
|
New Jersey
|
97
|
99
|
2
|
4
|
0
|
98
|
|
7
|
Tampa Bay
|
94
|
71
|
23
|
15
|
0
|
77
|
|
8
|
Flyers
|
92
|
93
|
1
|
8
|
+10
|
109
|
|
9
|
Carolina
|
92
|
92
|
0
|
9
|
+10
|
110
|
|
10
|
Florida
|
88
|
85
|
3
|
11
|
0
|
97
|
|
11
|
Atlanta
|
86
|
76
|
10
|
14
|
0
|
90
|
|
12
|
Montreal
|
81
|
104
|
23
|
1
|
0
|
77
|
|
13
|
Toronto
|
78
|
83
|
5
|
12
|
0
|
95
|
|
14
|
Boston
|
70
|
94
|
24
|
7
|
0
|
76
|
|
15
|
New York Islanders
|
55
|
79
|
24
|
13
|
0
|
76
|
So there you have the scores on an individual basis. Next I want to add up the highest possible score without bonus points. which would be 1500. My total score was 1381. 1381/1500=92.1%.
Therefore on my own arbitrary scoring system (hey, its my blog, I get to make these decisions 
) I was about 92.1% accurate in predicting how the teams would finish. Why don’t you guys dig the old prediction threads that you posted on over on the message boards and do the same math for yourself. The picks I am most proud of was the Washington, Flyers, and Carolina picks. Not just because of their accuracy, but because how “against the grain” they were compared to what most people thought. The Islanders, Lightning, and Montreal picks were all embarrassing, though the Islanders slightly less than the other 2.
Its always good to look back and see how you did, especially with playoff predictions coming in a day or 2 (maybe not tomorrow, I do have a lot of things to do).
