So, when I brought up my concerns over on the ECSF boards and the HFBoards (links on the right), I caught a lot of flack from people who said that the team was winning games, and that we won with our backup goalie, and there is nothing to be worried about. I tried to make an argument that, it appeared to me, that everything was trending downwards. That it seemed to me that the overall play was hurting, and that all the metrics that I would consider to be important seemed to be heading in the wrong direction.
So, to see if I was full of crap, or if I was making a legitimate argument, I decided to waste my Saturday afternoon compiling some stats. Hey, this stuff bothers me, so I have to do the work. Anyway, here are my calculations. I couldn’t find a place that keeps track of quality chances, and if I did I would weigh it equally with the other metrics I have here, but for now, I use what I got.
What I did was compiled the goals for, goals against, shots for, and shots against for every game this year. Then I compared those numbers to the season wide average. If the number put up was close to the average, it is considered a push, and given a ?. If the number is positive in nature compared to the average (IE higher goals for, or lower goals against) then it gets the 
smiley face. Finally if it is worse than the average it gets the 
frownie face.
I figured the smileys would lighten the mood.
Here are the results…
|
Opponent
|
GF
|
AVG
|
Diff
|
GA
|
AVG
|
Diff
|
SF
|
AVG
|
Diff
|
SA
|
AVG
|
Diff
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
Florida
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
30
|
30.04
|
▬
|
35
|
27.30
|
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
1
|
1.83
|
|
29
|
30.04
|
|
33
|
27.30
|
|
|
New York Islanders
|
1
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
19
|
30.04
|
|
24
|
27.30
|
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
4
|
2.09
|
|
3
|
1.83
|
|
26
|
30.04
|
|
23
|
27.30
|
|
|
Philadelphia
|
3
|
2.09
|
|
3
|
1.83
|
|
29
|
30.04
|
|
23
|
27.30
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
4
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
23
|
30.04
|
|
24
|
27.30
|
|
|
Toronto
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
27
|
30.04
|
|
34
|
27.30
|
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
4
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
39
|
30.04
|
|
28
|
27.30
|
|
|
New York Islanders
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
3
|
1.83
|
|
30
|
30.04
|
▬
|
27
|
27.30
|
▬
|
|
Philadelphia
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
0
|
1.83
|
|
45
|
30.04
|
|
30
|
27.30
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
1
|
2.09
|
|
1
|
1.83
|
|
27
|
30.04
|
|
29
|
27.30
|
|
|
Washington
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
0
|
1.83
|
|
28
|
30.04
|
|
31
|
27.30
|
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
3
|
2.09
|
|
1
|
1.83
|
|
35
|
30.04
|
|
22
|
27.30
|
|
|
Toronto
|
1
|
2.09
|
|
4
|
1.83
|
|
33
|
30.04
|
|
23
|
27.30
|
|
|
New Jersey
|
2
|
2.09
|
▬
|
0
|
1.83
|
|
31
|
30.04
|
|
22
|
27.30
|
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
0
|
2.09
|
|
1
|
1.83
|
|
36
|
30.04
|
|
22
|
27.30
|
|
|
Boston
|
0
|
2.09
|
|
0
|
1.83
|
|
26
|
30.04
|
|
19
|
27.30
|
|
|
Atlanta
|
3
|
2.09
|
|
5
|
1.83
|
|
36
|
30.04
|
|
28
|
27.30
|
|
|
Ottawa
|
1
|
2.09
|
|
3
|
1.83
|
|
37
|
30.04
|
|
34
|
27.30
|
|
|
Washington
|
3
|
2.09
|
|
1
|
1.83
|
|
41
|
30.04
|
|
25
|
27.30
|
|
|
New York Islanders
|
1
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
37
|
30.04
|
|
30
|
27.30
|
|
|
Ottawa
|
0
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
35
|
30.04
|
|
33
|
27.30
|
|
|
Florida
|
5
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
1.83
|
▬
|
25
|
30.04
|
|
29
|
27.30
|
|
When a line is red, it means that there are more frownies than smileys (bad game), blue is just the opposite (good game) and black is a neutral game.
As you can see, the last 5 games have all been trending downward or staying even. Whereas we went through a stretch between the Thrasher game and the Lightning game where everything was trending up or even.
I’m not sure what other explanations are needed, but I am pretty happy that the statistics back up what I have been observing. Everything is heading in the wrong direction, and while it may not be panic time, I certainly am more worried now than I have been at any point in the season, despite having a 10-2-1 record in our past 13.
