So, there I was, having an argument with an Islander pal of mine on how effective the Islanders offense was going to be (over on the ECSF boards btw) when I decided that I wanted to do some analysis on their offense to make my point (being that I think the Isles are going to have a horrendous offense next year). But before I did that, I figured it would be prudent to apply the same analysis to the team I actually care about, the Rangers.
So here is what I wanted to do. I wanted to look at 3 metrics.
Now I realize this is FAR FAR FAR from a surefire way to predict what the offense will actually produce. In fact I would hope you consider this nothing more than a “just for laughs” piece. This does not take into account chemistry problems, it doesn’t account for injuries, nor does it show anything how team play might effect a players career numbers (will Gomez score a ton more now that he can “go”?).
But what it does show us, at least, is that this team “should” have a reasonably effective offensive threat.
A few caveats first. I did not include Marc Staal, Hutchinson, or any other players not listed here. For Staal it was a simple thing that he had zero numbers to work with, so I figured I would put in Strudwick instead, who has very low numbers, but numbers none the less. I honestly feel Staal can, and will make this team, but it would not surprise me if he starts off the year in Hartford either. The rest is just gut feeling on who will make this roster. As you can see I have Peca in there, who is not officially signed at the time of me writing this. I could have put Dubinsky in there but since he has zero points in six NHL games, I figured leaving Peca in there shouldn’t hurt this analysis, especially since I feel you could swap their names in there, leave the numbers as is, and have it be totally believable. Also, during a normal season, you have plenty of guys come up, play a few games, then go elsewhere, or what have you. It is too difficult to accurately do this, especially in the time I have here, so instead I have made it so the bench players play a full 82 games. This SHOULD NOT hurt the analysis since the bench players I have chosen really accurately reflect what your annual fill-ins should put up for you.
So, shall we begin? First let us look at how the team looks like if they all put up the exact same numbers as last year….
|
Martin Straka
(29) |
Scott Gomez
(13) |
Jaromir Jagr
(30) |
|
Sean Avery
(18) |
Chris Drury
(37) |
Brendan Shanahan
(29) |
|
Petr Prucha
(22) |
Michael Peca
(4) |
Ryan Callahan
(4) |
|
Marcel Hossa
(10) |
Blair Betts
(9) |
Colton Orr
(2) |
|
Ryan Hollweg
(1) |
Nigel Dawes
(1) |
|
Michal Rozsival
(10) |
Marek Malik
(2) |
|
Fedor Tyutin
(2) |
Daniel Girardi
(0 |
|
Paul Mara
(5) |
Thomas Pock
(4) |
|
Jason Strudwick
(0) |
|
Starting Forwards:
|
207
|
|
Bench Forwards:
|
2
|
|
Total Forwards:
|
209
|
|
|
|
|
Starting Defenseman:
|
23
|
|
Bench Defenseman:
|
0
|
|
Total Defenseman:
|
23
|
|
|
|
|
Total Team:
|
232
|
This is what I like to call, your worst case scenario, especially since Jagr was hurt most of last year, Peca didnt play most of last year, nor did Callahan, Girardi, etc. Still 232 goals for is not a terrible number. Comparatively speaking 232 goals would literally place us exactly where we were last year(233, don’t use TSN’s GF number, use NHL.com’s, TSN is wrong), 18th in the NHL, however our team speed, and defense have clearly been upgraded.
Next, let’s look at the opposite end of the spectrum, what I like to call the best case scenario. What happens if each of these guys suddenly equaled their career best?
|
Martin Straka
(35) |
Scott Gomez
(33) |
Jaromir Jagr
(62) |
|
Sean Avery
(18) |
Chris Drury
(37) |
Brendan Shanahan
(52) |
|
Petr Prucha
(30) |
Michael Peca
(27) |
Ryan Callahan
(4) |
|
Marcel Hossa
(10) |
Blair Betts
(9) |
Colton Orr
(2) |
|
Ryan Hollweg
(2) |
Nigel Dawes
(1) |
|
Michal Rozsival
(10) |
Marek Malik
(7) |
|
Fedor Tyutin
(6) |
Daniel Girardi
(0) |
|
Paul Mara
(15) |
Thomas Pock
(4) |
|
Jason Strudwick
(3) |
|
Starting Forwards:
|
319
|
|
Bench Forwards:
|
3
|
|
Total Forwards:
|
322
|
|
|
|
|
Starting Defenseman:
|
42
|
|
Bench Defenseman:
|
3
|
|
Total Defenseman:
|
45
|
|
|
|
|
Total Team:
|
367
|
Obviously this one is the most ridiculous out of these numbers, especially since, lets face it, this just won’t happen. Shanny wont score over 50, and Jagr probably isn’t putting up 62 (though it sure would be nice). But at least you know what the “upper limit” would be. Just so you know, 367 goals would be, by far and away, the best goal total using last years numbers. In fact Buffalo had the best offense in the league, and they scored 298 goals.
Next, I have the actual thing I wanted to get to. The, “what if everyone just did what they should do” scenario.
Here is how these numbers are calculated. I took the career NHL goals total for each player, divided it by games played, and multiplied it by 82. So what that means is, if every player in the lineup, plays for 82 games, and plays just like their career average, how will they do?
|
Martin Straka
(27) |
Scott Gomez
(17) |
Jaromir Jagr
(43) |
|
Sean Avery
(13) |
Chris Drury
(25) |
Brendan Shanahan
(36) |
|
Petr Prucha
(29) |
Michael Peca
(18) |
Ryan Callahan
(23) |
|
Marcel Hossa
(13) |
Blair Betts
(9) |
Colton Orr
(2) |
|
Ryan Hollweg
(2) |
Nigel Dawes
(10) |
|
Michal Rozsival
(7) |
Marek Malik
(4) |
|
Fedor Tyutin
(5) |
Daniel Girardi
(0) |
|
Paul Mara
(9) |
Thomas Pock
(10) |
|
Jason Strudwick
(2) |
|
Starting Forwards:
|
265
|
|
Bench Forwards:
|
12
|
|
Total Forwards:
|
277
|
|
|
|
|
Starting Defenseman:
|
35
|
|
Bench Defenseman:
|
2
|
|
Total Defenseman:
|
37
|
|
|
|
|
Total Team:
|
314
|
Now I would want you to note 1 thing, I include the bench people here, but it really shouldn’t be so, since this projection removes their influence at all by assuming every starter plays 82 games. Therefore if you subtract the 14 goals that Dawes, Hollweg, and Strudwick account for you get a total of 300 goals. Still though, 300 goals gives you the best offense in the entire NHL. That is a helluva projection right there. Will it come to pass? Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. None of those numbers really stand out and make your eyes roll (like having Jagr score 60+ or Shanny score 50+ in the previous section) however what you do see is an incredibly balanced offense, and numbers that look very, very, VERY doable.
I hope this helps to give you some sort of perspective for next year, I know I am eager to see what this club can actually do out there.
-Inferno