Here we are. The playoffs are going to start for the Rangers in just under 24 hours. It is actually quite amazing that we are here. I myself counted the Rangers out immediately following the debacle against the Red Wings, but sit here just thrilled at the fact that I was wrong.

So, without further ado, here is my preview, and prediction for the 2006-2007 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Round 1. Rangers (6) Vs Thrashers (3):

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Offense:

The overall offensive numbers are surpringly even:

 

But here is where the difference lies between the 2 teams (in my humble opinion).

As we saw earlier by the information given to us by our good friend George Lane from Talking Thrash, we should expect a lineup from the Thrashers that looks something like this:

The adjusted 82 game scoring is what that line would have scored had each player played a full 82 games. This way it takes away the advantage of having a guy like Holik who scored 11 goals, looking better than a guy like Callahan who scored 4 goals, even though there is a 68 games played difference.

Now, lets do a similar calculation for my estimated NY Rangers starting lineup:

So collectively the scoring differences in the lines are as follows:

As you can see thats kind of a round-about way of getting to a similar number, that the Rangers and Thrashers are more or less evenly matched. But, did you notice the 3rd line for the Rangers VS the 3rd line for the Thrashers? A 37 goal differential there is nothing to laugh at folks. This to me is going to be the key matchup. If the Thrashers do not pay attention to this speedy 3-some, they will be torched, and may lose the series based on that fact alone. Let me also mention that this calculation is not foolproof. It is of course possible that Callahan could be a bust (albeit unlikely) and won’t do anything in the playoffs as the sample size is simply tiny. But I’ll take my chances.

 

Edge: Rangers (slightly) for better balance.

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Defense:

This is the stat that generally seperates the winners from the losers. Generally speaking the better defensive teams go deeper into the playoffs. This is where the Rangers truly shine. Allow me to bring up a chart I used in the last section:

 

As you can clearly see, the Rangers defensively hold a tremendous 29 goal differential in goals allowed. This is NOT a small number folks. In fact the Rangers have the second best defense in the East behind the always stingy New Jersey Devils (they gave up a miniscule 201 goals against).

There is no point in even examining this further, clearly the Rangers are the far superior defensive team.

Edge: Rangers (big time).

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Goaltending:

A hot goaltender can take you to the finals. Look at the Canes from last year, or the Lightning, or Ducks, or Oilers or any number of Stanley Cup finalists. Goaltending is perhaps the only position that can single handedly win or lose you a game, a series, and a title.

On their own, these numbers are impressive as it is. Henrik Lundqvist is the clear cut winner, but let’s dig a little deeper. Thanks to some handy dandy stats from the Hockey Rodent, we can show some impressive numbers from Henrik post All-Star break:

The information in Parenthesis is Henriks rank in the NHL from the All Star break till now.

The Rangers have been playing playoff hockey for almost 2 months now, arguably even longer than that. During a do or die stretch since about February 24th, Henrik has been brilliant. I’m not even sure brilliant begins to cover it. He would be in the running for the Vezina, and the Hart had he not have such a terrible start to the season. As it stands, I dont see anything changing from the regular season, to now.

Edge: Rangers (big time)

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Conclusion:

Despite all the things you have read before, I feel without a shadow of a doubt, this will be a close series. And I think that way because the Thrashers have 2 lethal scorers in Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk. Both are young, and both are hungry. The Thrashers also have a plethora of ex-Rangers looking to stick it to us.

However you also have to look at a few things. The Thrashers record is more or less a misleading one. Heres why. They play in the poorest division in the NHL (despite giving us the last 2 Stanley Cup Champions). They are the only team in their division with a positive goal differential between goals scored and goals allowed, and that was just by 1. The Rangers on the other hand, despite having 3 fewer points than the Thrashers they have a very good +16 goal differential, and the only team in the Atlantic with a - goal differential are the Philadelphia Flyers. Secondly in 4 head to head matchups with the Rangers this year the Thrashers have gone 3-1 with the results as follows:

Rangers win in Atlanta 5-2
Thrashers win in OT in New York 5-4
Thrashers win in New York 3-1
Thrashers win in OT in Atlanta 2-1

However the only game they won when I truly feel we were playing as we are now, is the last one there. And that too was in Overtime. All in all they played each other pretty evenly, so the head to head, even though the Thrashers picked up 6 points to the Rangers 4, I would call a push.

But at the end of the day, Goaltending and Defense usually wins out and the Rangers are playing great in both aspects.

Prediction: Rangers in 6 –> L W W W L W

-Inferno

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A few days ago I had the opportunity to work with George Lane of Talking Thrash on a sort of foreign exchange student program, hockey style. Basically we each wrote some information about each others teams to give some information for some of our own readers who might be a little rusty on the enemy. Here are my responses about the Rangers. Here are George’s responses about the Atlanta Thrashers:

The game is on the line. Who do you want to have the puck?
Marian Hossa. This guy can create a play out of nothing, or take on a double team and win. He has great vision and passing. This doesn’t matter in the playoffs, but he was money in the shootout, too. He is fast, can return checks, and is physical enough to win the board battles. His real advantage though is that no matter how many times a player hits his hands or tries to poke check the puck away, he never loses control of it. Plain and simple, if the game is on the line, Marian Hossa has the puck.

Which player is going to step up in the playoffs that was relatively quiet in the regular season?
Bobby Holik. GM Don Waddell has signed big checks to have him on the team, and for the purpose of his experience in the playoffs. He leads the Thrashers in playoff games played, with 134. The fact that Holik is a former Ranger who enjoys revenge when playing New York also will come into play. In his career against the Rangers, he has 63 games, and has tallied 41 points and a rating of +11. Look for him to make a big impact.

What could be the team’s Achilles heel this series?
The power play, or as we call it, the power pass. When the Rangers take a penalty, expect a lot of passing around the perimeter, and very few shots. With guys like Alexei Zhitnik, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Slava Kozlov, or Keith Tkachuk on a power play, you would expect more goals. Hopefully Coach Bob Hartley will get creative and fix the unit, but if he is not able to, then that will be the Achilles heel in the series.

What is the one aspect of the team that could single-handedly win the series?
I am going to go with two guys on this one. The first is Kari Lehtonen. He is a young goaltender, and tends to be streaky. When is good, he is absolutely dominant and can steal a few games in a row. When it’s not doing well though, it is a different story. The other guy is Slava Kozlov. He has 114 games played in the playoffs, and has his name on the Stanley Cup. He also has 12 game winning goals in playoff play. He, like Lehtonen, is very streaky, and tends to score goals in bunches. If he gets hot, he will dominate the series.

Who is new to the playoffs, and how will they handle the pressure?
The Thrashers have 7 guys on the active roster that have never played in the playoffs. These are Kari Lehtonen, Eric Boulton, Garnet Exelby, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jimmy Slater, Andy Sutton, and J.P. Vigier. There is also two guys that have been healthy scratches and probably won’t see playoff action: Steve McCarthy and Derek MacKenzie. The only two players I am worried about are Kovalchuk and Lehtonen. The other guys don’t play huge roles on the team, and won’t have the chance to make huge mistakes. I think they will handle their individual jobs well. I also think that Lehtonen will be able to handle the pressure. He has plenty of high-pressure experience in the playoffs in his junior and Finish leagues. I expect great play for him. Kovalchuk is very emotional, and if there is any player that will be affected by the pressure, it is him. If anything he will try too hard and turn the puck over, but he has been on fire recently and is on a 4 game goal streak. He will be fine.

What has been the normal four line roster, first power play squad, and first penalty kill unit?
Bob Hartley is notorious for changing lines every other minute just for fun. The top two lines are mostly static and the defense stays the some, but don’t expect everything else to stay for very long. Scott Mellanby and Jon Sim are also very interchangeable depending on how the game is going.

Kozlov-Belanger-Hossa
Kovalchuk-Tkachuk-Mellanby(Sim)
Vigier-Holik-Larsen
Boulton-Slater-Sim(Mellanby)

Havelid-Zhitnik
De Vries-Exelby
Sutton-Hnidy

PP 1 – Zhitnik, Havelid, Kovalchuk, Tkachuk, Hossa
PP 2 – de Vries, Hnidy, Kozlov, Belanger, Mellanby/Dupuis

PK 1 – Dupuis, Belanger, Zhitnik, Havelid
PK 2 – Vigier, Larsen, de Vries, Exelby

How do you feel the goaltender will do, and if something were to happen, how do you feel about the backup?
Like I said above, I think Kari Lehtonen will do great. The battle of young goaltenders will be one to watch. If (knock on wood multiple times) something happens to Lehtonen, or he gets tired, I have utter confidence in our backup, Johan Hedberg. He is 4-0 in his last 6 games, with a 1.83 GAA. He was assigned to the game on April 6 at Carolina, and won it to clinch the division title. He also has playoff experience, having played in 20 games. I actually would argue that Hartley start Hedberg in the second of the back to back games in New York. He can handle the pressure, and will perform well.

Now study up, there will be a quiz Thursday night.

-Inferno

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